USD/CHF is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair posted a rebound from 1.0005 (the low of April) and broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. Additionally, the 20-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum.
On the economic data front, U.S. consumer prices fell 0.3% on month in March (vs. +0.0% expected, +0.1% in February), and retail sales were down 0.2% (vs. -0.1% expected, -0.3% in February). The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey resulted in a general business conditions index of 5.2 for April, much lower than 15.0 expected and 16.4 in March. Meanwhile, China reported a higher-than-expected 6.9% on year growth in the first quarter. The U.S. dollar was weighed down by geopolitical risks and subdued economic data, but managed to pare some losses after positive comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
To sum up, as long as 1.0020 is not broken, look for a further rise to 1.0060 and even to 1.0085.
Resistance levels: 1.0060, 1.0085, and 1.0105
Support levels: 1.0005, 0.9990, and 0.9960
