Global macro overview for 20/04/2017:
The prices of crude oil fell down yesterday after a bigger than expected drawdown in US oil inventories. Market participants expected a decrease of -1,000k barrels in stockpiles, while according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, the shortage was reported at the level of -1,034k barrels, following a draw of 2,170k barrels last week. Just before the data release, OPEC announced that it would meet with non-OPEC countries at its next conference on May 25 to discuss further oil production cuts.
Let's now take a look at the crude oil technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the drop from the level of $52.58, the oil price has slowed down near the $50 level. This indicates a possible upward correction, reaching $51.46 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100-moving moving average). The base scenario remains the continuation of the sell-off. A fall towards the level of $50 will open the road towards the level of $49.60 (61.8% Fibo) and then to the 2016 and 2017 trend line lows around the $48.50 area.
