On Monday, sideways movement was not observed. The investors closed buys and were preparing for the FOMC meeting scheduled on Wednesday. However, Ben S. Bernanke almost directly stated that QE3 cut will start in September, we do not expect it next meeting. The other situation with the ECB meeting scheduled for Thursday; there are rumors that the ECB slashes the key rate.
Today at 10:00 UTC+4 Consumer Confidence index in Germany in July is issued; forecast 6.9 vs. 6.8 in the previous month. At 11:00 UTC+4 Spain’s GDP in the second quarter is published; forecast -0.1% vs. -0.5% in the first quarter. At 12:10 UTC+4 The Eurozone Retail PMI in June was 49.1. At 13:00 UTC+4 Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone; forecast -17.0 against -18.8.
At 17:00 UTC+4 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in the US in May; forecast 12.4% against 12.1%. At 18:00 UTC+4 US Consumer Confidence in July, forecast 81.1 vs. 81.4.
It is obvious that amid expectations of rate cut, they will not buy; published news will influence the speed of the drop of the euro.
From the technical point of view, on the H4 the price has broken the Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding), it has to consolidate under the line; Marlin oscillator starts crossing below the axis line. When the testing level of 1.3238 is broken, we expect the price on the support of trend line 1.3198. The second target is 1.3163, local lows on the H4 and the level of Fibonacci 61.8% on the daily chart.
