During the European session the euro was growing amid the GfK Consumer Confidence Survey in August (7.0 vs. forecast for 6.9); The Eurozone Retail PMI (49.5 vs. 49.1). However, when the trading session in the US was opened, the price reversed sharply. In the media it was said that the prerequisites were in Barack Obama’s speech. The President, prodding Congress to consider fresh economic proposals after two years of gridlock, called for restructuring business taxes so long as the initial revenue generated goes toward job creation.
We consider that cancellation of sequestration in August will be regarded as compensation for QE3 trimming. Thus, the event which takes place on September 18 may not influence the price.
Today at 10:00 UTC+4 Retail Sales in Germany in June is issued, forecast 0.2% vs. 0.8% in May. At 13:00 UTC+4 Unemployment rate in the Eurozone in June is published, it is expected to be 12.2% vs. 12.1% in May. At 16:15 UTC+4 ADP Non-Farm Payrolls in July, forecast 179K vs. 188K in June. At 16:30 UTC+4 US GDP in the second quarter is revealed, forecast 1.1% vs. 1.8% in the first quarter. At the same time data on PCE in the second quarter is published; forecast 1.1% against 1.3%. At 17:45 UTC+4 Chicago PMI in July, forecast 53.7 vs. 51.6 in the previous month. At 22:00 UTC+4 FOMC Interest Rate Announcement is issued.
Thus, today mixed and relevant macroeconomic data is issued. Speculative movements in the expanding triangle on the H4 are possible. As the result, when the investors hear the hint for QE3 trimming starting from September, the euro will decline. Technical levels outlined on the 4H charts.
