Yesterday several questions were added to a list of questions. Besides traditional ones there is a new one. It concerns the reason why amid increasing demand on US bonds the US dollar loses demand. The other question is why amid weakening positions of Angela Merkel the euro is growing. Why strong macroeconomic US news does not prevent the growth of the euro. Why the euro rises followed every positive piece of news from the Eurozone. We suppose that major investors do not buy the euro. They left out of the euro before the last Fed’s meeting and there is no sense in buying the euro right now. If our presumption is correct, the euro may fall amid any relevant news in favour of the US dollar.
Yesterday the ECB revised downwardly the economic outlook; from -0.4% to -0.6% in 2013 and from 1.0% to 0.9% in 2014.
Today at 10:45 UTC+4 data on Industrial Production in France in June is issued, forecast 0.3% vs. -0.4%. At 12:00 UTC+4 Italy’s Trade balance in June is published; forecast 4.22 billion euro vs. 3.9 billion euro. We expect the investors will end buying in the area of high of June 18, 1.3416.
If data is weak the price may drop to the support of blue sliding line of Kruzenshtern on the H4, coinciding with the high of July 31, 1.3345. Consolidation of the rate under the level opens the way to 1.3300.
