Yesterday it was expected that US data was positive, however, it was not; the euro continued downward movement along with the stock market. It should be noted that the euro is sold while the data is both positive and negative. Empire State Manufacturing Index in August was 8.2 vs. expectation for 10.2. Capacity Utilization in July was 77.6% vs. forecast for 77.9% and revised downwardly up to 77.7% in June. Industrial Production was flat vs. forecast for a 0.5% growth.
However, after the macroeconomic data was published, the investors began to buy gold due to turmoil in Egypt, where 525 people were killed. Gold price rose 2.5%. After it the euro rose 90 points.
Today at 12:00 UTC+4 data on Current Account in the Eurozone in June is revealed, forecast 21.2 billion euro vs. 19.6 billion in May. At 13:00 UTC+4 Trade Balance in the Eurozone is published, forecast 15.3 billion euro vs. 14.6 billion euro.
At 16:30 UTC+4 data on Building Permits in July is issued; it is expected to be 0.95 million vs. 0.92 million in June. Housing starts are estimated to be 0.91 million vs. 0.84 million in June.
Thus, we expect the data on the Eurozone will probably be strong and we expect the currency will rise. However, the growth is expected to be limited, to the range 1.3374/84, where a consolidation and resume of the decline to the medium-term target 1.3085/95 are possible.
