On Monday, amid strong data from Japan and apparent weakening of US pressure on Syrian issue, the euro grew 100 points. We consider there was a strong speculative compounding part of the yesterday’s growth; probably the investors rose the rate before the closure of quarterly futures contracts on currencies (closure on September 16).
Today at 9:30 UTC+4 data on China in August is published; the growth of the Industrial Production is expected to be 9.9% vs. 9.7% in July, Retail Sales may grow 13.3% vs. 13.2%.
Until September 12, the US Treasury places bonds at $120 billion plus $20-30 billion from placement of Verizon’s corporate debt, which increases demand on the US dollars and may weaken the growth of the euro.
At the end of the week a preliminary voting on war with Syria is scheduled in the US Senate. We consider that that the war is inevitable as its major aim is to divide the country into four separate autonomous regions, Sunni, Alawite, Kurdish and Druze. Later on these territories will be transformed into independent states resembling the Yugoslavian scenario. Due to considerable international pressure on the United States, military operation may be short-term with missile attacks. However, according to the mass media if militants manage to attack Israel using chemicals, large-scale war is inevitable. Thus, one should not weaken the Syrian compounding in the strength of the euro.
From the technical point of view we expect the growth to the low of August 22, 1.3297, starting from it a new wave of US dollars demand may start.
