Analysts underscore divergence in forecasts of how presidential candidates' strategies could be implemented. What does it mean? Will the US economy suffer if Donald Trump wins the elections? What if Joe Biden remains in office? According to experts, this scenario is far from prosperous either. In other words, Americans have to make a hard choice, balancing between the two fires.
According to the current report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), most economists foresee inflation acceleration, budget deficit, and elevated interest rates if Donald Trump is elected president. However, with Joe Biden serving a second term, this scenario is unlikely.
In a quarterly WSJ survey, which polled 68 business and finance analysts, the majority (56%) believe that inflation rates will be higher with Donald Trump than with Joe Biden. Meanwhile, 16% of respondents hold the opposite view, and the rest see no significant difference.
The periodical believes that economists' views on inflation and interest rates are influenced by the Republican's policies, especially those related to trade and immigration. However, these opinions would not undergo radical changes if a different Democratic candidate ran instead of Joe Biden.
Previously, economists upgraded their forecasts for the US gross domestic product to 1.7% for 2024. This is way below the 3.1% GDP growth in 2023. They had to revise their estimates in light of recent inflation reports. Experts assess the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months at 28%. Interestingly, the current forecasts have changed insignificantly compared to the previous survey conducted in April 2024.
