According to Goldman Sachs, there are limited means to boost domestic oil supply next year, regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November.
Last Friday kicked off with a modest rise in oil prices. Economic data from the United States came in better than anticipated, reinforcing expectations that oil demand from the world's largest energy consumer might increase. Against this background, the Brent crude futures contract for September traded at around $82 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $78 per barrel.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to average from $75 to $90 in 2025. This scenario is possible if the economy remains in good shape, demand for oil is stable, and OPEC and its allies keep the market under control.
"While there is a lot of uncertainty about trade policy, tariffs on US crude imports seem unlikely," the leading investment bank said. However, Goldman Sachs does not rule out the possibility that oil prices could drop by $11 per barrel next year if the United States imposes a 10% tariff on all imported goods. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts beyond 2025 in the face of elevated inflation, oil prices could dive by as much as $19, with Brent trading around $62 instead of the projected $81.
