Trade between the United States and China has collapsed sharply, and the situation is becoming increasingly critical. According to China's customs data, bilateral trade plummeted by 20% in April 2025, reaching $45.6 billion. The ongoing trade standoff has taken a heavy toll.
Data showed that total trade between the two economic giants dropped by 20% year-over-year after the US imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate with a 15% tariff on American imports. Notably, Washington raised the tariff rate to 34% in the spring and later increased it to an astonishing 145%. In response, China raised its tariffs to 125%. Based on these developments, analysts have drawn bleak conclusions, warning of further escalation between the two powers.
Analysts noted that the $10.8 billion decline in US-China trade in April was a troubling sign, emphasizing that temporary tariff relief would likely have only a limited impact, as importers would not be able to adjust logistics and contracts within a three-month window. Other experts echoed the sentiment, suggesting that the 20% drop represented a relatively mild response to the current tensions and warned that bilateral trade could decline further if the situation continues to worsen.
According to economists at Freedom Finance Global, mutual trade could decline by another 15%-20% by year-end if tariffs remain at 30% for the US and 10% for China. If both sides raise tariffs again, losses could jump 1.5 times higher, reaching $450 billion to $460 billion.
