Some experts are putting forward an intriguing scenario: tariffs imposed by the administration of US President Donald Trump may end up being “tariffed” by the courts. These conclusions are based on an analysis by Yardeni Research analysts, who believe the White House should prepare for a potential legal defeat. In such a case, the current US tariff strategy could collapse.
According to Yardeni Research, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington could rule that President Trump does not have the legal authority to impose tariffs. The experts cite the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as the key legal framework in question.
Yardeni Research also noted the administration’s concern about such an outcome. Analysts warned that a sudden cancellation of presidential powers to impose tariffs under IEEPA would have catastrophic consequences for national security, foreign policy, and the country’s economy.
The firm fears negative and chaotic fallout from a possible court ruling, adding that foreign governments could potentially ignore trade agreements. It is worth noting that Trump previously described his tariffs as an “External Revenue Service” aimed at reducing the federal deficit.
So far, customs duties have reached a record $157 billion over the past 12 months. At present, the White House is targeting a baseline tariff of 10%–15% on all US trading partners, a move that could potentially generate more than $500 billion annually.
According to Yardeni Research, losing such a major case could push bond yields higher and put pressure on equities due to rising political uncertainty.
