Seek and you shall find! So it was that the international rating agency Fitch Ratings identified clear signs of a slowdown in the US economy—and it is all because of import tariffs! They are the culprits—or are they?
According to the agency’s estimates, in 2026, average annual US GDP growth will be much lower than the 1.6% projected for the current year. Fitch draws attention to the ongoing slowdown in the American economy under the impact of the so-called tariff shock.
Analysts have observed that US economic data now provides evidence of a slowdown. “There is some evidence in the US national accounts that the tariff shock has been absorbed partly by downward pressures on corporate profits, but we expect pass-through to accelerate later this year,” the agency emphasizes. While the increase in the budget deficit should support demand in 2026, Fitch Ratings expects average annual US GDP growth to be significantly below the 1.6% trend rate.
The agency notes that rising inflation in the United States will lead to slower real wage growth. In addition, accelerating inflation negatively affects consumer spending, which dropped noticeably in 2025.
At the same time, a slowdown in employment growth has also been recorded in the country, analysts add.
“The weakening in the US job market should persuade the Federal Reserve to cut rates more quickly than we previously anticipated. We expect cuts of 25bp in September and December, with three more in 2026,” Fitch Ratings predicts.
Meanwhile, China’s export rise has remained strong despite the US tariff shock. This has been supported by a weaker nominal exchange rate and lower export prices, the agency adds.
