Over the past decade, China has generously invested in the infrastructure of developing countries. As The New York Times reported, China is now much better prepared for a trade war with the United States than its rival. Trump may announce new tariffs every week, but by that time, Beijing had already built parallel trade routes — complete with roads, ports, and political dividends.
China had been developing this strategy for years. Infrastructure projects across Africa, Asia, and Latin America became a kind of insurance policy against US tariffs. As a result, when exports to the US dropped by around 15%, China simply redirected that volume elsewhere. Hence, total exports barely felt the impact. Meanwhile, the country’s trade surplus has grown from $612.6 billion to $785.8 billion. This growth is amazing, especially considering that Beijing also "flexed its muscles" by boycotting purchases of US soybeans. Diplomacy is diplomacy, but no one has canceled a well-placed blow to the opponent’s electorate.
In new markets, Chinese companies are acting boldly — and, let’s be honest, rather aggressively. Electric vehicles are taking over Europe and Southeast Asia, while solar panels are sweeping across Africa. The downside for the US is that now, even with tariffs ranging from 125% to 145%, Beijing can sustain economic growth. China does not seem at all like it is ready to surrender.
Trump, for his part, didn’t sit idly by and launched his own tariff marathon: on April 2, he announced duties on goods from 185 countries at once. First, the White House imposed a “universal” 10%, then came tailored rates, in particular a whopping 145% for China. The hikes escalated so quickly that investors felt the White House was orchestrating a reality show, capturing the interest of spectators.
However, after several weeks of tariff skirmishes, a truce was announced in Geneva — the tariffs were reduced for 90 days (to 30% and 10%, respectively). That reprieve expired in August, but Trump extended it for another three months: the marathon of “Tariffs vs. Mussolini-style Infrastructure” exhausted everyone involved.
The bottom line: China has prepared for a long war and deployed a global web of alliances, while the US prefers to act based on the “storyline of the day.” Time will tell who ultimately will have more resources and patience. But what is already clear is that Beijing sees the trade war not as a disaster, but rather as a surprise exam. Like a diligent student, it came prepared.
