In 2026, Japan's economy is set to emerge from a decade of stagnation towards stable growth. UBS Bank forecasts a favorable cycle with synchronized increases in income, spending, and consumer inflation. Despite global risks and demographic pressures, analysts see a chance for economic normalization.
Core inflation is expected to slow down due to falling food prices, but headline inflation will persist. The core consumer price index is projected to drop from 3.1% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2026 and settle around 2% in 2027.
The Bank of Japan will continue to raise the key interest rate from the current 0.50% to 1.25% by the end of 2026 and to 1.50% by mid-2027. With new Prime Minister Sanae Takichi at the helm of the government, fiscal policy is likely to become more accommodative, focusing on enhancing purchasing power and corporate investments. UBS forecasts real GDP growth of 1.10% in 2026.
