Oil prices are likely to trade near $60 a barrel this year as a persistent supply surplus offsets the impact of geopolitical risks, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday.
In a January survey of 31 economists and analysts, the average forecast for Brent in 2026 was $62.02 a barrel, slightly above December’s projection of $61.27. By comparison, Brent traded around $70 a barrel on January 30, and the average price last year was about $68.20.
Geopolitical tensions have increased in recent months amid threats from Donald Trump toward Iran, expanded sanctions on Russia, and instability in the Middle East. Those factors pose risks of supply disruptions and provide periodic support to prices.
Analysts say, however, that geopolitics is being constrained by fundamental forces. Changes in US trade policy, demand dynamics in China, and OPEC+ production decisions will play a larger role in determining prices.
“Geopolitics makes a lot of noise, but neither Venezuelan nor Iranian events should change the overall picture. The oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus,” Norbert Ruecker of Julius Baer said.
Analysts estimate that the supply surplus this year could range from 0.75 million to 3.5 million barrels per day.
