Crude oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in the near term amid a lack of diplomatic progress in the US‑Iran conflict. OCBC Bank says in a report that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to constrain global supplies.
OCBC analysts forecast oil prices around $100 through mid‑2026. A return to previous levels is not expected before early 2027, as global logistics chains gradually recover.
The collapse of shipping in the region that accounts for about one‑fifth of global oil consumption is forcing Gulf producers to cut output. Tanker traffic through the strait has fallen to minimal levels due to security risks and mandatory inspections by Iranian forces. The current market situation is assessed as a “moderately severe” supply shock. The odds are very much in favor of a further rally.
Oil releases from international strategic reserves and the use of alternative pipelines could offset up to 10 million barrels per day. However, these measures are insufficient to cope with the shortfall if protracted shipment disruptions from Middle Eastern crude persist. Limited transit by individual vessels is not enough to fully stabilize the supply-demand balance.
