Global food prices reached a three-year peak in April as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported its food price index rose for a third consecutive month to 130.7 points, the highest reading since February 2023.
The FAO identified the conflict in Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as the principal drivers of the rise. A sharp increase in conventional energy costs has prompted countries to boost biofuel production, diverting oilseed crops from the food market into fuel feedstocks.
Sector dynamics
- Vegetable oils: The index jumped 5.9%, updating the high recorded in 2022. Soybean, sunflower, and palm oils have become more expensive as they are used increasingly as alternative feedstocks for internal combustion fuel blends.
- Meat: Prices reached a historic high, rising 1.2% in April. The increase reflected a shortage of export cattle supplies from Brazil.
- Cereals: Wheat and maize advanced by a moderate 0.8%. The market has been supported by inventories carried over from previous seasons, but those buffers are temporary.
Outlook for 2026
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warned of risks to next year’s harvest. He said that soaring fertilizer prices are prompting farmers to reduce wheat plantings in favor of less input‑intensive crops, creating a structural threat to food security. Agriculture now faces a dual shock—logistical disruption caused by the conflict and shortages of agrochemicals.
Analysts expect pressure on consumer budgets to persist through the remainder of the year as food increasingly functions as an energy‑linked commodity under current market conditions.
