A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger an unprecedented spike in global oil prices and plunge the world into the most severe energy crisis in a century, analysts at Wood Mackenzie warned. The consultancy said that if the strategically vital waterway remains closed to commercial shipping through the end of the year, the price of Brent crude would inevitably rise to $200 a barrel.
Since the start of hostilities in Iran, global oil production has fallen by about 11 million barrels per day, the report noted. Experts cautioned that, as the conflict endures, the financial and infrastructure damage to the global energy market would intensify rapidly and feed directly into higher end‑user fuel costs. Such a sharp and uncontrolled rise in the price of key energy inputs, they said, would inflict severe damage on industrial activity worldwide and precipitate a broad slowdown in global economic growth.
The risk of a prolonged Hormuz blockade adds to warnings issued by other leading economists. Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen Asset Management, has forecast that a further acute phase of the crisis could begin this summer, driven by the seasonal rise in demand for travel and transport in the Northern Hemisphere. The resulting additional strain on logistics, analysts said, would deepen the imbalance between supply and demand for hydrocarbons and could push Brent above $180 a barrel before the end of 2026.
