China’s economic growth slowed to 4.7% in the first half of 2026, down from 5.0% in 2025. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s nominal GDP reached 69.57 trillion yuan (about $10.24 trillion). The industrial sector grew 3.9%, while services expanded 5.2%. Whereas economic momentum still held at 5.0% in the first quarter, second‑quarter GDP growth fell sharply to 4.3%. Quarter‑on‑quarter growth in April–June was 0.9%.
The slowdown was more pronounced than independent analysts had forecast. They had expected only a 0.5-percentage-point deceleration versus an actual 0.7-percentage-point drop. Against this backdrop, the World Bank now projects full‑year GDP growth for China of 4.4% in 2026, citing further cooling in external demand. At the same time, June trade data delivered a pleasant surprise: exports and imports jumped year-on-year by 27% and 36% respectively, well above conservative market expectations.
China’s exports reached their highest level since November 2021, and imports reached their highest level since July 2021. Analysts attribute the phenomenal surge to a global boom in artificial intelligence, sustained demand for semiconductors, and active efforts by foreign firms to build reliable inventories in case of potential geopolitical supply disruptions.
