After the Minsk peace deal was concluded, the following dynamic of the Russian ruble was seen. First, the Russian currency strengthened at the beginning of the talks, but then took a sharp decline on the back of the Ukrainian president’s statement on the outcome of the first round of the negotiations. Petro Poroshenko said that there was ‘no good news’.
The situation changed after the press conference of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. He told about the reached agreements and pacified the worried public, thus sending the ruble up against the dollar and euro. The lowest level at that day was 64.5 rubles a dollar. Few hours later the exchange rate rose by more than 2 rubles to 66.40. The jump was explained by skepticism of market participants to such statements. Most people compared the Minsk 2 ceasefire deal with the previous one that virtually turned out to be just a paper. Moreover, from the Ukrainian side the agreement was signed by Leonid Kuchma, who has no official status. It is as if the deal was endorsed by any resident of Ukraine.
Given that, experts are uncertain over the upcoming market reaction to this-time Minsk peace talks. However, it is still better than no dialogue at all. There is nothing for it but to wait for further developments in the south-eastern Ukraine. Actions of the rebels are crucial to determine whether sanctions against Russia will be tightened or cancelled.
