The Russian ruble is not considered to be the worst global currency anymore. Moreover, at present it is among leaders by a variety of features. The Russian currency faced a challenge of tumbling oil prices and the Western economic sanctions. However, the aftermath was resolved promptly. The fulfilment of the ceasefire in Ukraine has been the key factor for a growing value of the ruble. Nowadays, too many various factors influence the ruble’s exchange rate. Most analysts are certain just in one thing: the Russian currency is highly erratic. Investors, who want to know what to expect later on, should take notice of the events in East Ukraine as they are seen as a barometer of further strengthening or depreciation of the currency. The turbulent dynamic of the ruble highlights the ongoing economic malaise. Last year, the ruble dropped 46% in value. However, it partly offset some losses in Q1 2015 after the Bank of Russia had lowered the lending interest rate. Importantly, more and more signs indicate that Russia’s economy is capable to withstand the outside blow. According to Russia’s statistical agency (Rosstat), GDP grew 0.4% in Q4 2014. Experts do not rule out that the GDP print deviates from the actual state of affairs when the Russians were buying up imported electronics and expensive cars in panic. Nevertheless, there are some reasons for optimism. The Russian ruble is strengthening. Some analysts foresee its notable appreciation against the US dollar this summer. Other strategists make forecasts on the grounds of oil prices dynamic. On the contrary, they expect the ruble to fall 13% in value in Q2. Thus, the ruble will be trading at 67 against the greenback. Such a forecast is based on the scenario that the crude market will be flooded to the fullest pushing prices down to $40 a barrel. Meanwhile, all we can do is to give the stronger ruble the thumbs up and hope that the positive outlook will come true.
