Analysts of the Economist made a list of the top five “risk scenarios” that might substantially influence the global economy over the coming two years. The highest rate is 25.
1. The rising terrorist threat, 12.
If the number of terrorist acts grows, it will undermine consumer and business confidence that will have a severe effect on the US and the EU markets.
2. High volatility as a result of divergence in global monetary policies, 16.
The most vulnerable countries to the shifting monetary cycle as well as the nations which are heavily reliant on commodity exports would have large fiscal deficit.
3. The growing tension between Russia and Ukraine, 16.
Weakening trade ties will have a negative impact on Russia's economy and will also contribute to sinking industrial output in Central and Eastern Europe.
4. The emerging market slowdown amidst commodity price slump, 20.
Given the growing dependence of Western manufacturers and retailers on demand in the developing world, a prolonged deceleration in emerging markets would have a severe effect across the EU and the US.
5. Greek exit followed by a eurozone breakup, 20
There is a high probability to such an outcome from 2016, given the difficulty the Syriza government will face in implementing the tough conditionality of the new agreement with its creditors. Analysts expect other countries to leave the eurozone after Greece.
6. The escalation of the conflict between North and South Korea.
The conflict between North and South Korea was not mentioned in the report, but it incurs a considerable risk for global markets. Recently, North Korea fired a shell at South Korea in response to persistent provocation.
