Experts of Moody’s Analytics tried to assess the cumulative economic benefits and costs of Mr. Trump’s proposals on taxes, trade, immigration, and spending. Analysts forecast that the risk of Trump’s presidency poses the biggest threat to the US economy. The report reads that as a result of the full adoption of those policies the economy would plunge into a prolonged recession and heavy job losses. It would hit hardest low- and middle-income workers. According to expert estimates, during his first term as US president the labor market could lose 3.5 million jobs, thus increasing the unemployment level to 7%. Importantly, nowadays the US Department of Labor reports an average unemployment rate holds at 4.7%.
Besides, Moody’s analysts say, “the US economy will be more isolated and diminished.” Indeed, the eccentric Republican is ready to trigger a trade war through tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports. This approach will inevitably reduce a foreign trade volume, the number of immigrants, and investments. Among the proposals analyzed by Moody’s are Trump’s huge tax cuts for corporations and employees. This policy would expand federal deficit catastrophically. So the adverse effect of higher deficit would vastly outweigh minor benefits from lower tax rates.
Meanwhile, Moody’s plans to evaluate the economic agenda of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. The presidential election in the US is scheduled for November 8.
