The Russians have a new reason for joy, as Russia firmly holds the title of the energy market leader. According to the BP forecasts, Russia will lead the gas market at least until 2040. In its latest energy outlook, BP predicted that Russia will remain the world's largest exporter of primary energy resources until 2040.
Recent worries that the US will be able to catch up with Russia in terms of oil production turned out to be unfounded. Even if this happens, then by 2040 the share of annual US exports will still be relatively small in comparison to the global volumes. BP forecasts that by this time the US export of oil and gas will reach 360 million tons, which is less than half of the expected volume of exports from Russia in 2040 - 780 million tons. According to the BP forecast, by 2040 Europe will increase gas imports, as a result, the region may become even more dependent on energy resources supplied from Russia. The share of Europe’s total gas consumption met by the Russian exports will increase from around a third currently to almost a half by 2040.
The outlooks of BP and the Russian officials on this issue fully coincide. In early February, Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee Alexander Medvedev announced that Russia could increase its share of Europe’s total gas consumption to 40 percent in 2019. However, the EU needs to prepare for the expected deficit and growing prices.
