According to Bloomberg, the OPEC and non-OPEC oil output cut is under threat as US oil shale producers are boosting their share in the global oil market. The situation looks alarming for the cartel's position in Asia, experts believe.
American light crude shipments to Asia will total about 1.3 million barrels a day in the next five years. In 2016, exports to Asia were almost absent. This will let Asian refineries fill up 40% of additional demand with US shale, said Sushant Gupta, a research director at Wood Mackenzie.
“US tight oil provides an alternative source to help diversify Asia’s crude slate, and complements the declining domestic crude production in Asia,” Gupta said.
According to Wood Mackenzie’s estimates, US crude exports will increase to 4 million barrels per day by the mid-2020s, exceeding shipments from Iraq and Canada.
The United States will supply much of the world's growing demand for oil over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts. The country will account for 80% of global demand growth, according to the IEA’s latest report.
The US shale oil output will account for over 50% of production growth, rising by 6.4 million barrels a day. The US crude oil production will grow by 2.7 million bpd to 12.1 million bpd by 2023. Increase in the production of shale oil, according to experts, can more than offset the reduction in supplies of conventional oil.
Non-OPEC oil output will rise by 5.2 million bpd to 63.3 million bpd, the IEA predicts. In the future, the US influence on the global oil market will strengthen. The US oil exports will more than double to 4.9 million bpd by 2023, the IEA said.
