According to the estimates of the Raiffeisenbank analysts, the dollar may cost about 70 Russian rubles by the end of December. It is noted that such a dramatic scenario can unfold even when the oil price remains above $70 per barrel. The prediction of the bank is based on the data on the difference between the revenues and expenditures of public funds. Assuming that the exchange rates of oil and the national currency remain unchanged, current account receipts in November-December will be $12.5 billion. This is not sufficient to repay foreign debt of $14.3 billion. Last month, the current account balance amounted to $12.1 billion, while the capital outflow reached a new record high, exceeding $10 billion. “Since such a large balance on the current account (two months in a row) did not lead to the strengthening of the ruble (although the CBR chose no currency), it can be concluded that the capital export was not the result of the increase of foreign currency by banks but of other factors,” the assessment of Raiffeisenbank includes.
In addition to the above negative factors, there is the pressure of sanctions. The ruble is under constant pressure from current and planned sanctions. The exchange rate of the ruble is guaranteed to decline later this year or at the beginning of 2019. Deputy head of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach agreed with the prediction and said that the ruble might collapse in 2019. In order to somehow mitigate the shortage of foreign exchange liquidity, the Federal Treasury is going to launch currency swap transactions at the Moscow exchange on December 8.
