The analysts consider that forecast lowering of the USA long-term credit rating by the S&P agency will in a near-term outlook have a negative influence on the equity market and especially on the banking sector which is a large holder of debt securities.
"We consider that a common short-term situation is becoming worse and investors will close a part of positions on the developing markets and this will negatively affect the quotations. Better to desist from panic because lowering of the USA credit rating may not happen", - Maksim Shein, the head of the Analytical Department of the BCS Financial Group supposes.
Besides, according to his words, the question of money distribution will stay open-ended and later the situation may turn to its normal state. "To know that the USA is not an absolutely reliable debtor is one matter, but to recognize it officially is another pair of shoes. It is a significant signal for other countries which have a large external debt and an alarm bell for those countries which are holders of debt securities of the American government", - M. Shien says.
Markets have reacted to the forecast lowering by the downfall: stock, debt, mineral markets went down immediately. "The S&P agency had confirmed the USA rating on the Aaa level but gave a negative forecast. This information has dropped from the clouds and worsened the plight of the Russian market", - Mikhail Fedorov, the analyst of the "RIC-Finance" investment company says. According to his words, no one could suppose that "the USA will saw the branch it is sitting on". "However the market thought that nobody will dare to do something like that before the election race. But the S&P agency dared and did it", - M. Fedorov comments the agency’s actions.
Natalia Zabula, the senior trader of the "Alfa-Capital" management company notes that the correction which was expected by the majority of investors in May has recently occured. "If other agencies will undertake similar actions following the S&P we will experience a dramatic downfall", - Anton Safonov, the analyst of the "Investcafe" supposes.
We remind you that the day before the S&P changed its forecast of the USA sovereign rating on the Aaa level from "stable" to "negative" state. At the same time the agency confirmed the long-term sovereign debt rating of the country on the Aaa level and the short-term sovereign debt rating on the A-1+ level. America was given the same rating in January, 1991, and the last change was made in 1991 or 20 years ago.
At the same time the forecasts of the Federal Reserve System’s (FRS) and the New-York Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) ratings were worsened. One of the main reasons for rating changes is inability of American legislators to reach a compromise on problems of the country’s budget.
