According to the German Institute for Economic Research ( DIW Berlin), the so-called soft lockdown may cost €19.3 billion.
Welt am Sonntag noted that the one-month national quarantine came into force on November 2, 2020. Analysts at DIW Berlin suppose that the restaurant and hotel industries will be damaged more than other sectors. Their losses may reach €5.8 billion. At the same time, companies involved in sport, culture, and entertainment will also face losses. On the background of the containment measures, their expenses may total €2.1 billion whereas trade enterprises may lose €1.3 billion. Economists at DIW Berlin also predict that the industrial sector may contract by €5.2 billion. Rising unemployment is another negative consequence of the national lockdown. Thus, in the fourth quarter of the year, around 100,000 people may become jobless.
Economists at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) also share the opinion of their colleagues at the DIW. Michael Hüther, Director of the German Economic Institute, expects that by the end of the year, the number of unemployed people may advance to 591,000. Next year, the indicator may jump by 15,000 people, if the lockdown lasts more than planned.
