In 2017, the Brent crude oil spot price will drop to $92 per barrel, compared to $112 in 2013. Detailed forecast was published by the US Energy Information Administration on December 16.
The drop of the prices will occur as a result of crude oil production increase in the US, which in 2016 will be 9.6 million barrels per day, which is the historical high achieved in 1970. Annual growth through 2016 will be 0.8 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production is expected to level off after 2017 and then slowly decline after 2020. In 2016, the import share of US petroleum and other liquids supply falls to about 25%, compared to 37% in 2013.
By 2035 natural gas generation is projected to surpass coal generation. Coal and natural gas each represent 34% of total generation in 2035, but by 2040 the coal share drops to 32%, and the natural gas share increases to 35%. Compared to 2012, by 2040 natural gas production will grow steadily, with a 56% increase.
With the rise of crude oil production within the US, net use of imported energy sources, which was 30% in 2005, falls to 4% in 2040.
In October 2013, there were reports that the US had outrun Russia in terms of hydrocarbon production. According to the data provided by International Energy Agency, IEA, and EIA, in July, the US produced 22 million hydrocarbon barrels per day, while 21.8 million barrels per day were produced in Russia. In spring 2013, ExxonMobil reported the US would be oil exporter by 2025.
The growth of oil and gas production in the US is seen in terms of so-called shale gas revolution. The major shale deposits are in North Dakota and Texas.
