China may repeat the scenario of the Ever Given container ship that halted traffic in the Suez Canal, and block the largest supply routes. Delays from severe congestion at seaports in the south of the country could result in massive disruption to global supply chains.
"The delays have already resulted in pressurizing soaring shipping prices within China due to a lack of containers and increased export demand," Project 44 Vice President of Marketing Josh Brazil said, adding that "these high shipping costs are just one factor that may contribute to an additional looming threat to global inflation." If the situation remains unchanged, many cargoes can get stuck in China for a long time.
Previously, experts estimated losses to be suffered by the global economy from disruption to global supply chains in 2021. According to analysts at Euler Hermes, losses could cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Since the beginning of the year, there have already been supply chain disruptions due to the shortage of shipping containers and semiconductors. All this may trim 1.4 percentage points from global trade growth, which is about $230 billion.
