Not every analyst will risk their reputation by publishing forecasts for the future. In the current situation, even a short-term outlook is not easy for experts to make.
Famous British economist Jim O'Neill has been one of those who refused to give any predictions for 2022. Amid ongoing uncertainty, the expert was reluctant to make any forecast. He said that in such circumstances any attempt to predict economic development for 2022 was likely to fail. According to O'Neill, the next year will be highly unpredictable and any changes could have dire consequences. Among the factors that will determine the future of the economy, the expert highlighted the coronavirus pandemic and inflation. He added that it was unknown whether the price increase was temporary or not. The analyst stressed that it had been clear even before the pandemic that “endless central-bank generosity had outlived its usefulness”. In his opinion, it is time to return to inflation-adjusted interest rates that bear some resemblance to potential GDP growth rates.
O'Neill warned that amid the pandemic, pursuing ultra-loose monetary policy may lead to a new surge in inflation, according to some experts. He recommended paying attention to the issue of productivity growth, as well as rising poverty and climate change.
