According to World Bank analysts, school closures due to COVID-19 cause long-term weakening of the economy. The World Bank strategists believe that problems sparked by restrictive measures may lead to a decline in the global economy. As closures continue, high-income countries are likely to suffer from lockdowns in the long term. Countries with developed economies will face economic contractions due to the negative impact of imposed measures on school education. The analysts say that the reason lies in the complexity of secondary education in developed countries that has a strong effect on their economic development. The World Bank representatives recommend lifting lockdowns as they may “threaten countries’ efforts to build human capital.” The experts released the paper “Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates” and presented the results of conducted research. The paper explains that school closures due to the pandemic may cause income shocks in the long run. Using data on 145 countries, researchers projected an optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic global scenario including closures of schools. Considered issues may cause weakening of the labor market and potential loss of knowledge and experience. 40 years after the end of the pandemic, the GDP of high-income countries may drop by 4.2%, which is lower than the GDP of middle-income and low-income countries decreasing by 2.6% and 0.8%, respectively. The WB study notes that in 10 years the world economy will suffer serious damage due to the loss of potential knowledge and experience in wealthy countries. As for the less developed countries, they will be affected by the educational crisis in the medium term.
