Russia clearly plays an important role in the global oil market. However, in light of current geopolitical developments, many nations are now actively reviewing their energy policies of cooperation with this country.
It turns out the world can withstand the loss of Russian oil supplies. All that needs to be done is to find an alternative. The world will not be left short of oil even with lower output from sanctions-hit Russia, the International Energy Agency said. Last month, Russian oil supplies fell by about 1 million barrels per day, the IEA estimated. This figure could rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in May, to 2 million in June, and to nearly 3 million in July if sanctions remain strong.
Russia, in order to somehow offset losses and show that there are countries still willing to cooperate, has to sell oil at a discount to India and China. However, neither these volumes nor selling prices can compare with the volumes and prices of oil delivered to the EU, the main exporter of the Russian commodity. Since March, India has received about 6 million barrels of Russian oil in 5 shipments. This is almost half of the volume Russia delivered in 2021. The exports of Urals oil to India and China are expected to accelerate because this brand is sold at a record discount versus the Brent benchmark.
