Independent experts and financial regulators have long been looking at reports delivered by China’s government with their brows raised questioningly. The country’s tendency to systematically overstate macro data is even taken into account by big rating agencies when assigning rankings.
China’s recent rosy statistics released amid a severe lockdown again made economists question the credibility of the country’s economic outlook. A CNBC poll finds that experts refuse to believe in China’s bright future in the medium term despite upbeat data published by the local authorities. Independent experts, on the contrary, foresee a further slowdown in economic activity.
“While some of the current policy support will bear more fruit in Q4, the Covid situation will likely remain challenging into the winter and early 2023, and export growth is set to slow,” UBS chief China economist Tao Wang said.
UBS downgraded its growth forecast for the Chinese economy to 2.7% from 3% for 2022 and to 4.6% versus 5.4% for 2023. The revised outlook is based on a scenario where the crisis in the property market is over soon and coronavirus restrictions ease. Meanwhile, Mattie Bekink, the China director for the Economist Intelligence Corporate Network, notes the Chinese government is making not enough effort to stimulate the economy and its post-pandemic recovery.
