The United States is slowly but steadily sliding into a recession. A few weeks ago, most experts only assumed such a possibility. Today, they already give actual time and reasons. So, in the coming 12 months, the United States risks facing a recession and unemployment growth, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The Wall Street Journal published an in-depth article about issues the world’s largest economy is now dealing with, including recession risks. According to the newspaper’s latest survey of economists, the probability of a recession in the United States in the next 12 months is seen at 63%. Notably, since July 2020, the reading has never exceeded 50%. On an annual basis, the country’s GDP is projected to drop by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2023 and by 0.1% in the second quarter. Not so long ago, however, experts said the American economy would expand by 0.8% and 1% respectively. The economic downturn is anticipated to lead to serious consequences for the labor market. On average, Nonfarm Payrolls are estimated to decrease by 34,000 a month in the second quarter of 2023 and by 38K in the third quarter.
The Wall Street Journal says the 2023 growth forecast is getting more pessimistic because the US Federal Reserve’s ability to keep raising interest rates to tame inflation without facing higher unemployment and an economic downturn is seriously doubted.
