Britain's Centre for Economics and Business Research has made a bold macroeconomic prediction. CEBR anticipates China overtaking the No. 1-ranked United States to become the world's biggest economy by 2036.
Last year, CEBR analysts predicted that China's economy could surpass the US one as early as 2030. Obviously, lockdowns and trade wars with Western countries forced the UK's leading economics consultancy to revise its forecast.
Among other things, if Beijing decides to reunify Taiwan with China, the country will definitely face harsh trade sanctions. This in turn will further shift the timeline for China's economy to become the world's top economy.
An economic conflict between China and the West could have far more severe consequences than the ones that we observe today amid Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. The confrontation between the world's second-largest economy and Western nations could result in a global recession, with inflation at levels not seen for decades. In this case, China will be hit hardest, thus missing a chance of taking the leading position in the ranking of the top economies in the near future.
Furthermore, CEBR experts assume that the global economy may tip into a recession this year. The reason lies in interest rate hikes delivered by major central banks with a view to curbing surging prices.
At the same time, analysts predict that the global gross domestic product could double by 2037. According to the outlook, developing economies will enjoy the most explosive growth. In other words, Asia-Pacific countries will account for about a third of global economic output by the middle of the next decade, while the share of European countries will shrink significantly to less than 20%.
The report also reveals that India is on track to become the third economic superpower by 2032. Thanks to high demand for fossil fuels, developing economies that are rich in natural resources will start expanding at a rapid pace.
The UK is expected to retain sixth place in the world league table through to 2037. Its economic growth will most likely be hampered by the absence of a political strategy aimed at accelerated performance and the lack of a clear vision of Britain's role outside the European Union.
Earlier, World Bank President David Malpass and International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva forecast that the global economy would not be able to avoid a recession in 2023 due to a sharp rise in prices last year.
