Scientists from Germany’s Institute for Intelligent Analysis and Information Systems (IAIS) believe that Facebook seems to have reached peak of its global popularity. So, it is likely to fade away soon. The research by Christian Kersting and Christian Bauckhage is based on the data of Google Trends service which keeps a record how many times users search for a certain subject in various countries. So, scientists have been monitoring such social networks as Twitter, VKontakte, Google+, LinkedIn as well as other Internet services, like AirBnB, Amazon, Groupon, Spotify, Ebay, etc. Thus, they looked at 175 Internet services across 45 different countries. The most services have a definite lifecycle. They are like fads. And like most fads, interest tends to peak and then decline over time.
Christian Kersting and Christian Bauckhage state that Facebook is no exception. Its popularity perfectly fits into the same wave-like pattern. Different methods of analyzing Facebook searchers vary in estimating the pace how fast the Facebook popularity will decrease. On average, the public attention to the social media will have reduced 50% by 2017 compared to the current popularity. The authors note that search terms do not represent absolute user interest.
In early 2014, John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler from U.S. Princeton University carried out a similar survey based on the search queries statistics by Google Trends. They reckoned that Facebook will lose 80% of its users from 2015 to 2017. The survey riveted the media attention; besides it aroused vivid feedback from Facebook management. In response, Zuckerberg’s team conducted its own survey. Analyst Michael Develyn monitored the dynamic of like clicking on Facebook pages by Princeton, Harvard, and Yale universities. Thus, he made a conclusion that Princeton university was “on the verge of extinction.” Facebook analyst added that decline of Google queries on the word air is more “threatening.” “Does it mean that air on the Earth might disappear due to fading interest in it of Internet audience?” he made a spiteful remark.
However, Facebook’s independent survey proved that the social media has been going through troubles holding attention of the available audience and attracting new users. The survey reads Facebook had added 18% of new audience annually by Q3 2013; the number of users rose 16% by late 2013; Facebook audience expanded just 14% during Q1 2014. Apart from the massive falloff in interest, another challenge for Facebook is the ageing audience. Indeed, more and more teenagers opt for simpler and more convenient messengers. So, David Ebersman, Facebook Chief Financial Officer, noted that teenagers were spending fewer hours in this social network in October 2013. As a countermeasure, Facebook had to buy boosting WhatsApp for a whopping $19 billion, the record money for the technology sector.
In addition, the social network has been frequently criticized for abusing personal details of its users. Besides, it held psychological experiments displaying posts in newsfeeds. This caused painful feedback from the Internet community. In a nutshell, Facebook held “experiment with emotions” with 700,000 of its users differentiating posts of friends whether they are positive or negative.
