Those who want to become less dependent on oil are likely to defeat. Analysts are sure that countries will not be able to replace oil in the near future. The fact is that in the next decades, oil demand will rapidly rise, thus boosting production.
According to forecasts, demand for oil will grow steadily all around the globe. Thus, by 2045, demand will surge to 110 million barrels a day and this is not a limit. It means that under the current conditions, countries will not be able to abandon oil or significantly reduce its use in the foreseeable future. “Every data-based forecast that I have seen shows that oil is irreplaceable for the foreseeable future,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said at the Energy Asia conference. “We see global oil demand rising to 110 million barrels a day by 2045, and oil still making up about 29% of the energy mix by then,” he added. “Chronic underinvestment in the industry, not just oil, but across all energies, is putting the viability of the whole energy system at stake,” the OPEC Secretary General highlighted. He believes that “no new investment in oil projects will only lead to energy chaos”.
He also supposes that the world will need more oil as “over the period to 2030, it is expected that another half a billion people will move into cities across the world as the global economy continues to expand.” At the same time, Haitham Al Ghais has admitted that “renewables will play a much greater role, and contrary to what some may say, OPEC Member Countries are already investing significantly in this area.” Curiously, OPEC’s outlook differs from the one provided by the International Energy Agency. The agency predicts a slowdown in the yearly demand to 400,000 barrels a day in 2028 compared to 2.4 million barrels a day in 2023.
