According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the US economy is on the verge of a so-called super-cycle. It is underpinned by expanding artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities and a focus on decarbonization. The super-cycle will boost labor productivity and stimulate current economic growth, according to the bank. The US seems to have reached another turning point. The US economy has every chance of maintaining high performance throughout 2024, ending the year on a high note. Analysts pinpoint that the current US super-cycle began in the 1980s when interest rates and inflation peaked. However, Goldman Sachs believes it is now time for a new economic cycle. "I think we are moving clearly into a different super cycle, one in which some of those factors can no longer be relied on in the same way," Peter Oppenheimer, a Goldman Sachs analyst, said. The current economic super-cycle began when the Federal Reserve's key interest rate reached its peak, Oppenheimer explained. Over the last 35 years, the country has seen low interest rates. This period coincided with the end of the Cold War, leading to a significant reduction in many geopolitical risks. However, in several sectors of the US industry, from aviation to banking, regulation worsened. Finally, there was globalization, which rewired international trade and finance. Today, the US has created favorable conditions for a new super-cycle: the global economy is preparing for a growth wave, and the interest rate is set to decrease smoothly. The key factor in the new economic upswing is the combination of AI and its impact on labor productivity along with the US economy's focus on decarbonization. According to Oppenheimer, a significant advantage remains with technology companies that do not appear as expensive as they did in the 1980s. In addition, Goldman Sachs stressed that the economic situation in the US was much better than that at the beginning of the previous super-cycle.
