On Wednesday, MNI Indicators unveiled a report illustrating an unexpected and accelerated downtrend in business activity in the Chicago region for January.
The business barometer for Chicago declined to 46.0 in January, from a slightly increased revision of 47.2 in December. A reading under 50 signifies a contraction. This minor decrease left economists surprised, as they had anticipated the barometer to elevate to 48.0 from the prior month's initially reported 46.9.
The unanticipated decline in the business barometer can be attributed to the production index, which plummeted to 48.7 in January from December's 58.6—reverting to a contraction phase and reaching its lowest point since October 2023.
MNI Indicators attribute this steep fall in the index largely to an increased percentage of respondents reporting a decrease in production—a trend which they argue may have been influenced, at least in part, by severe weather conditions.
In contrast, all other subcomponents integrated into the headline index experienced an upturn compared to December, with the new orders index augmenting by 1.4 points and the employment index rising by 0.5 points.
Lastly, the report indicated a decrease in the prices paid index for the first time since September 2023; it fell to 63.9 in January from 68.0 in December.
