The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for China, citing robust first-quarter GDP figures and recent policy initiatives. The Washington-based organization now anticipates the Chinese economy to expand by 5 percent in 2024, an improvement from the 4.6 percent projection made in April. Furthermore, the IMF has increased its 2025 growth forecast to 4.5 percent, up from 4.1 percent.
Despite these optimistic revisions, the IMF expects China's growth to slow to 3.3 percent by 2029, attributing this deceleration to an aging population and declining productivity growth.
The IMF noted that risks are predominantly tilted to the downside. Key concerns include a prolonged or more severe adjustment in the property sector and growing fragmentation pressures. Inflation is projected to rise but is expected to remain low, as the output lags behind its potential growth.
