Shares of Indivior PLC experienced a significant decline, trading approximately 15% lower on the London Stock Exchange and about 17% down in Nasdaq pre-market trading. This downturn follows the drugmaker's revision of its 2024 outlook, attributed to underwhelming third-quarter and full fiscal year net revenue from its opioid addiction treatment, SUBLOCADE.
The company has identified several factors contributing to the weaker than anticipated SUBLOCADE revenue. These include quicker initial adoption of a rival long-acting injectable (LAI) by treatment providers, fluctuations in funding timelines within certain Criminal Justice System (CJS) accounts, and reduced trade stocking.
Despite these challenges, Indivior is pursuing strategies to enhance efficiencies, aiming to bolster SUBLOCADE’s growth and maintain its profit margins.
For the third quarter, Indivior forecasts net revenues to range between $302 million and $309 million, reflecting a 13% increase at the midpoint compared to the previous year. Projected SUBLOCADE net revenues are expected to fall between $187 million and $192 million, marking a 14% rise at the midpoint year-over-year.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2024, the company now predicts an adjusted operating profit in the range of $260 million to $280 million, aligning with last year's figures, down from its prior estimate of $285 million to $320 million. Annual net revenues are now anticipated to be between $1.125 billion and $1.165 billion, indicating a 5% increase at the midpoint, revised from an earlier range of $1.150 billion to $1.215 billion with an 8% midpoint increase.
SUBLOCADE's net revenue expectations have been adjusted to $725 million to $745 million, up 17% at the midpoint compared to last year. This is a reduction from the previous forecast of $765 million to $805 million, which represented a 25% midpoint growth.
CEO Mark Crossley noted the accelerated initial adoption of the competing product to SUBLOCADE, coupled with increased variability in Criminal Justice System funding and additional trade stock pressures, has led to revenue falling short of the July projections. Consequently, Indivior has revised its FY 2024 guidance. Looking forward, as the U.S. market adapts to two LAI products, continued initial competitor adoption is expected to exert pressure on SUBLOCADE volume growth. As a result, the company no longer anticipates achieving a $1 billion net revenue run rate for SUBLOCADE by the end of 2025.
On the London Stock Exchange, Indivior shares traded at 608.50, down 15.3%. In Nasdaq pre-market activity, the shares were priced at $7.88, reflecting a 16.53% decrease.
