The Labor Department recently released data revealing a slight uptick in initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week ending November 2nd. First-time jobless claims edged up to 221,000, marking an increase of 3,000 from the revised figure of 218,000 from the previous week. This aligns with economists' expectations, who had also predicted a rise to 221,000 from the initially reported figure of 216,000 for the week prior.
This marginal increase comes after jobless claims had fallen to their lowest level since May 18th, when numbers settled at 216,000. Concurrently, the report highlighted a drop in the less volatile four-week moving average, which fell to 227,250—down by 9,750 from the prior week's revised average of 237,000.
Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, commented that "Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits remain low as the biggest issue for the job market isn't firing but weaker hiring." He noted that claims still fell below their estimate of break-even levels, which is consistent with stagnant monthly job growth. Sweet further suggested that the current status of initial claims does not alter their view of risks within the labor market, which remains concerned with weakened hiring over sudden layoffs.
Additionally, the Labor Department's report indicated that continuing claims, which reflect the number of individuals receiving ongoing employment assistance, increased by 39,000 to reach 1.892 million—the highest it's been since November 2021. The four-week moving average for continuing claims also rose by 8,500 to 1,875,500, nearing a three-year high. Sweet remarked, "Continuing claims have been edging higher, consistent with other signs that hiring has slowed," possibly still experiencing residual impacts from Hurricane Milton.
The previous Friday, the Labor Department had issued a report showing only a slight increase in U.S. employment for October. According to the report, non-farm payroll employment inched up by a mere 12,000 jobs, falling short of economic projections of 113,000 new jobs. The report further revised job growth figures for September and August downwards. September’s employment increased by 223,000 jobs, rather than the previously reported 254,000, while August’s figures were adjusted to a rise of 78,000 jobs from the earlier reported 159,000. These revisions indicated that job growth for August and September was 112,000 less than initially reported.
Finally, the report stated that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1 percent in October, unchanged from September and in accordance with economists' predictions.
