China's export growth in November faltered more than anticipated, coinciding with an unexpected decline in imports driven by weak domestic demand. This situation underscores the looming danger of an economic downturn, particularly as the property market struggles to stabilize amidst potential global trade protectionist measures.
In November, exports increased by 6.7% year-over-year, a significant drop from the 12.7% growth observed in October, according to data released by the customs office on Tuesday. Economists had projected an 8.5% increase. Meanwhile, imports fell by 3.9% compared to the same period last year, following a 2.3% decline in October. A modest increase of 0.3% had been expected for imports.
The trade surplus widened to $97.44 billion in November, surpassing the previous month's $95.27 billion and the anticipated figure of $94.0 billion.
Further data showed that China's exports to the United States grew by 8%, with shipments to the European Union rising by 7.2%. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations surged nearly 15%.
Looking ahead, according to economist Zichun Huang from Capital Economics, export growth is anticipated to pick up in the ensuing months. This optimism is attributed to further market share increases driven by a weak real effective exchange rate. Although the impact of US tariffs might result in a 3% reduction in export volumes, these effects are not expected to materialize until the middle of next year.
Huang also expressed that import volumes are likely to rebound shortly, spurred by increased fiscal spending, which in turn will elevate demand for industrial commodities.
