FX.co ★ Oil Prices Fluctuate Amid US-Iran Talks, Tariff Uncertainty

WTI crude oil futures remained around $61 per barrel on Monday, experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay between potential easing of restrictions on Iranian crude and a temporary reprieve from U.S. tariffs. Reports of "constructive" U.S.-Iran nuclear talks fueled hopes for increased Iranian oil exports, exerting downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, OPEC adjusted its demand growth forecast for 2025–26 downwards by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing weaker consumption as a consequence of U.S. tariffs. Despite this adjustment, OPEC still projects an annual growth of 1.3 million bpd. President Donald Trump, while providing exclusions on steep tariffs for tech products mainly sourced from China, indicated that a new set of tariffs would be announced soon, contributing to ongoing uncertainty. In response to the market dynamics, Saudi Arabia is advocating for more rapid output increases to reduce prices and enforce discipline among overproducing members such as Kazakhstan. Additionally, China's crude imports rose by 5% year-on-year in March, driven by higher imports of Iranian and Russian oil.