FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rebounds after ISM Data

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note advanced toward 4.2%, recovering from a three-week low, following the release of ISM manufacturing data that slightly exceeded expectations, thereby alleviating apprehensions of a more pronounced economic slowdown. Despite this, the report indicated that factory activity contracted in April at its most accelerated rate in five months, with production plummeting to its lowest level since 2020 due to tepid demand. Additionally, investors reassessed their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts after the unexpected economic contraction seen in the first quarter, as weekly jobless claims surged to 241,000—marking the highest level since February—raising concerns about potential weaknesses in the labor market. Concurrently, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett noted progress in tariff negotiations, with forthcoming updates anticipated soon. Separately, the United States and Ukraine reached an agreement regarding Ukrainian natural resources access, reducing fears that President Trump might curtail support in negotiations with Russia. Market participants are now focused on Friday’s employment report for April, seeking insights into the economy’s direction and any potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.