FX.co ★ US Inflation Seen Steady Year-on-Year, Monthly Pace Likely to Accelerate

The annual inflation rate in the United States is anticipated to stabilize at 2.4% in April 2025, consistent with March's figures. On a month-over-month basis, however, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase by 0.3%, a recovery from March's 0.1% decline—the first monthly decrease observed since May 2020. This rise may be partly attributed to recent tariff increases on imported goods. Concurrently, annual core inflation, which omits the more unpredictable food and energy prices, is forecasted to stay steady at 2.8%, marking its lowest rate since 2021. The monthly core CPI is predicted to climb by 0.3%, compared to a previous rise of 0.1%. Analysts will scrutinize these figures to detect early indications of tariff-induced price pressures. Nevertheless, the complete impact, particularly concerning core inflation, might not be immediate, as numerous businesses remain cautious about transferring increased costs to consumers, given the potential for new trade agreements.