FX.co ★ Corn at Over 5-Month Lows

Corn futures have declined to $4.30 per bushel, marking their lowest point in over five months. The May WASDE report highlighted an oversupply situation that overshadows even robust demand. The USDA anticipates a record-setting U.S. corn crop of 15.82 billion bushels for 2025–26, with cultivation spread over 95.3 million acres and an unprecedented yield of 181 bushels per acre. This increase will boost total U.S. inventories to 17.3 billion bushels, with end-of-year stocks reaching 1.8 billion bushels—the highest since 2019–20—equating to an 11.6% stocks-to-use ratio. On a global scale, production is forecasted to hit a record 1.265 billion metric tons, largely due to Brazil's strong "safrinha" crop and expanded harvests in Argentina and Ukraine. While U.S. exports are projected at 2.7 billion bushels, a multi-year high, and domestic use in sectors like ethanol, livestock, and industrial applications is expected to rise to 15.46 billion bushels, the massive scale of production and stockpiling has eclipsed consumption. This dynamic is continuing to exert downward pressure on prices, with traders monitoring summer weather for potential impacts on yield outcomes.