FX.co ★ TTF Prices Rise by 4%

European natural gas futures increased by 4%, reaching over €35/MWh on Monday, due to supply constraints and geopolitical tensions that countered a decline in demand. Ongoing maintenance activities in Norway have led to a 14 million cubic meters per day decline in exports since Friday, as reported by LSEG. Analysts predict further disruptions, with the possibility of up to 100 mcm/day going offline in the coming weeks. Concurrently, Ukraine conducted strikes deep within Russia prior to peace negotiations in Istanbul, diminishing the likelihood of Russian gas returning. Although warmer weather has temporarily reduced demand, Europe continues to grapple with the challenge of replenishing gas storage, which currently stands at just 48.3% capacity. Furthermore, some LNG shipments are being redirected to the Middle East, where summer demand is increasing.