In the most recent economic update, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has pegged its real GDP growth forecast at 3.8% for the second quarter of 2025, according to data updated as of June 5, 2025. This marks a downward revision from the prior estimate of 4.6% for the same period.
The GDPNow model, which provides a real-time estimate of the economy’s growth trajectory, serves as a valuable resource for policymakers and economists in assessing economic performance between official quarterly reports. The adjustment signifies a recalibration in expected economic activity, reflecting potentially softer dynamics in certain economic indicators assessed by the model.
Although the revision entails a decline, a 3.8% growth rate still suggests robust activity, indicating the U.S. economy continues to expand at a healthy pace. Analysts will be keen to examine future updates to the GDPNow model, monitoring any further fluctuations that could signal shifts in economic vigor or emerging concerns within the broader economic landscape. As always, economists and stakeholders alike will keep a close watch on these forecasts to gauge potential implications for financial markets and policy decisions.
